President Donald Trump’s choice to lead Social Security, Andrew Saul, still has yet to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. The nomination of Saul, to a term that ends January 20, 2019, could be upheld until the term actually expires.
Considering the holidays are approaching and a new Congress takes over at the beginning of 2019, it is likely that the Senate will not get to Saul’s nomination. If by some chance Saul was confirmed before the current Congress is finished, he would still be allowed to serve as Social Security’s commissioner beyond January 20, 2019. He could serve in that position for quite some time until a successor is confirmed, but Trump’s intention appears to be for Saul to serve in the post long-term. If that were the case, and Saul is not confirmed before this Congress ends, then he would have to be re-nominated to the post by Trump. There has seemingly been no significant opposition to Saul’s nomination, the delay is likely related to the Senate’s calendar as many nominations are pending without resolution right now.
CBO Projections
Each year the Congressional Budget Office updates projections of Social Security finances after receiving new data. Below is a look at the most recent CBO projections released.
CBO’s June 2018 projections indicate a slight improvement in the Social Security system’s financial outlook compared with the previous year’s projections:
- The projected 75-year actuarial balance, a commonly used measure of the system’s financial condition, has not changed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since last year, remaining at −1.5 percent of GDP (that is, a deficit of 1.5 percent). As a percentage of taxable payroll, the projected 75-year actuarial balance has improved slightly from −4.5 percent to −4.4 percent (see table below).
- Changes to projections of three key inputs have improved the Social Security system’s projected finances: the share of earnings that is subject to Social Security payroll taxes, the labor force participation rate, and interest rates.
- Those improvements have been partially offset by including an additional year of deficit, 2092, in the calculation of the actuarial balance. Technical changes also collectively worsen the 75-year outlook.
